Archive for December, 2020
As we come to the end of a very different year, it is common practice to look back on events. Obviously the Sars-Cov-2 virus has featured heavily so let’s do a quick review:
Based on collated data from research and observational studies since Feb 2020 it is well understood that the SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads most efficiently among unmasked adult speakers who spend time together in close, unventilated indoor spaces. More so, if when in that space, they insist on talking to each other!
It is also clear that the virus can spread through nonverbal activities. Sneezing and coughing produce virus-encased globs of spittle, and even heavy breathing, especially during a run or vigorous activity, can spray aerosolised droplets that can linger in the air before slipping inside a person’s nose or mouth. Read the rest of this entry »
As we progress towards a staged release of constraint on movement, interaction and social engagement, there are quite naturally discussions about the potential impact and risk of increased exposure.
Mortality rates have dominated discussions, so far, the global death toll of Covid-19 is estimated at 1.4m. Deaths are now running at a little under 10,000 a day or about 3.5m a year. If this were maintained, cumulative deaths over the first two years might reach close to 5m, or just over 0.06 per cent of the global population. To put this in context, the Spanish flu, which emerged in 1918, lasted 26 months and cost somewhere between 17m and 100m lives, or between 1 and 6 per cent of the then global population. However, as feedback from infected people who survive builds, there is a growing appreciation for the impact of post infectious morbidity, duration and intensity.
Substantial long-term morbidity is at least possible, as the Sars Cov-2 virus enters pulmonary and brain tissue and causes cardiac dysfunction. Read the rest of this entry »